
Our People
Prof Richard Allan

Professor of Climate Science
EO Data-Model Evaluation
Research interests
I use Earth Observation data to explore fluctuations in clouds, water vapour, rainfall and the Earth’s radiative energy balance to improve our understanding of the climate system and to assess and improve the realism of climate prediction models.
Recent publications
Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming. 2025-04-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb448
Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance. 2025-02-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
Assessment of the global ocean heat content and North Atlantic heat transport over 1993–2020. 2024-12-20
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00860-6
An Abrupt Decline in Global Terrestrial Water Storage and Its Relationship with Sea Level Change. 2024-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09860-w
Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000. 2024-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09838-8
The 1921 European drought: impacts, reconstruction and drivers. 2024-08-16
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-983
A Machine Learning Framework to Evaluate Vegetation Modeling in Earth System Models. 2024-07
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004097
Influence of Meltwater from Labrador Sea ice and icebergs transported via Flemish Cap on the long-term North Atlantic Cold Anomaly. 2024-05-10
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171535658.89353492/v1
Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover. 2024-04-11
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01427-z ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1752-0894 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1752-0908
Odden ice melt linked to Labrador Sea ice expansions and the Great Salinity Anomalies of 1970-1995. 2024-04-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171200100.01510117/v1
Odden Ice Melt Linked to Labrador Sea Ice Expansions and the Great Salinity Anomalies of 1970–1995. 2024-04
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019988
Droughts are blowing in the wind. 2024-03-21
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00209-6
Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population. 2024-01-11
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3
An even drier future for the arid lands. 2024-01-09
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2320840121
Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels. 2023-12-13
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023
Changes in atmospheric moisture transport over tropical South America: an analysis under a climate change scenario. 2023-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06833-4 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0930-7575 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1432-0894
Evaluating Vegetation Modeling in Earth System Models with Machine Learning Approaches. 2023-11-20
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170049918.89868321/v1
An assessment of CMIP6 climate signals and biases in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture over Europe. 2023-10
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8169
Climate sensitivity controls global precipitation hysteresis in a changing CO2 pathway. 2023-09-30
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00484-2
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation. 2023-09-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36
State of the Climate in 2022. 2023-09
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2023bamsstateoftheclimate.1 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0003-0007 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1520-0477
Evaluating Vegetation Modelling in Earth System Models with Machine Learning Approaches. 2023-05-15
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3457
Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?. 2023-04-17
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023
Choice of Forecast Scenario Impacts the Carbon Allocation at the Same Global Warming Levels. 2023-01-04
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1483
Water remains a blind spot in climate change policies. 2022-12-15
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pwat.0000058 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/2767-3219
Worsening drought of Nile basin under shift in atmospheric circulation, stronger ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole. 2022-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12008-8 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/2045-2322
Discrepancies in Simulated Ocean Net Surface Heat Fluxes over the North Atlantic. 2022-11
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1360-7 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0256-1530 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1861-9533
On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback. 2022-09-27
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036675 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/2169-897X ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/2169-8996
Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: Where does the energy go?. 2022-08-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-239
State of the Climate in 2021. 2022-08
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2022bamsstateoftheclimate.1 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0003-0007 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1520-0477
Interruption of the Gulf Stream in 2014 caused the 2014-16 North Atlantic Cold Fresh Anomaly and reciprocal warming/ salinification of the North American coastal region. 2022-06-29
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1731069/v1
Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections. 2022-06-28
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097231
Global Changes in Water Vapor 1979–2020. 2022-06-27
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036728
Observation of the direct effect of aerosols in the South-East Atlantic at high temporal resolution from MSG/SEVIRI. 2022-03-28
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7669
Global changes in water vapor 1979-2020. 2022-03-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10510814.1
The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe. 2022-02
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7290
The complex and spatially diverse patterns of hydrological droughts across Europe. 2022-01-17
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10510182.1
Emerging new climate extremes over Europe. 2022-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0930-7575 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1432-0894
The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as Seen in the U.K. Earth System Model. 2022-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0234.1 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0894-8755 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1520-0442
Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO2 pathway. 2021-10-27
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00206-6
Global Climate. 2021-08-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-21-0098.1 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0003-0007 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1520-0477
Future Changes in Wet and Dry Season Characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. 2021-07-14
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-21-0017.1 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1525-755X ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1525-7541
The 1921 European drought: Impacts, reconstruction and drivers. 2021-04-21
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-41
The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: A Comparison of State-of-the-Art IMERG Observations, CMIP6 Models and ERA5 Reanalysis. 2021-03-04
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8891
Global-scale changes in Earth’s energy budget and implications for the water cycle. 2021-03-03
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1335
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. 2021-01-15
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6
Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. 2021-01-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3
Variability in the global energy budget and transports 1985–2017. 2020-12-17
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05451-8
Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. 2020-11-26
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504997.1
Observations of planetary heating since the 1980s from multiple independent datasets. 2020-10-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abbb39
Observed variability of intertropical convergence zone over 1998—2018. 2020-09-18
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba033
Aerosol‐Forced AMOC Changes in CMIP6 Historical Simulations. 2020-07-28
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088166
Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. 2020-07
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337
Atmospheric precursors for intense summer rainfall over the United Kingdom. 2020-06-30
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6431
Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations.. 2020-03-23
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2379
Global surface energy and water cycle variability 2001-2011 from satellite data. 2020-03-23
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19771
The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: A Comparison of State-of-the-Art Observations and Models. 2020-03-23
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18910
New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES. 2020-03-16
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086705
Changes in atmospheric shortwave absorption as important driver of dimming and brightening. 2020-02
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0528-y
Evaluation of Five Satellite Top-of-Atmosphere Albedo Products over Land. 2019-12-06
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11242919
Seasonal Changes in the North Atlantic Cold Anomaly: The Influence of Cold Surface Waters From Coastal Greenland and Warming Trends Associated With Variations in Subarctic Sea Ice Cover. 2019-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015379
The impact of air–sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. 2019-09-16
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/0930-7575 ISSN: https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1432-0894
‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains. 2019-09-12
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7
Volcanic Radiative Forcing From 1979 to 2015. 2018-11-27
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028776
Publisher Correction: Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors. 2018-10-02
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06662-8
Characterizing the Radiative Effect of Rain Using a Global Ensemble of Cloud Resolving Simulations. 2018-10
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001415
Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors. 2018-09-11
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2
Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change. 2018
The INTENSE project: using observations and models to understand the past. present and future of sub-daily rainfall extremes. 2018
Unrealistic Increases in Wind Speed Explain Reduced Eastern Pacific Heat Flux in Reanalyses. 2018
Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis‐based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates. 2017-06-27
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026616
Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content. 2017-01
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012278
Data Descriptor: A new, long-term daily satellite-based rainfall dataset for operational monitoring in Africa. 2017
Elusive origin of warming slowdown. 2017
Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. 2017
State of the Climate in 2016. 2017
Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions. 2017
A multisatellite climatology of clouds, radiation, and precipitation in southern West Africa and comparison to climate models. 2016
Contrasting fast precipitation responses to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone forcing. 2016
Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK. 2016
Interannual variability in the summertime hydrological cycle over European regions. 2016
Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models. 2016
The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. 2016
Atmospheric rivers do not explain UK summer extreme rainfall. 2015
CHALLENGES IN QUANTIFYING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE. 2015
Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. 2015
Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models. 2015
Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes. 2015
Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa. 2015
Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land. 2015
The DACCIWA Project Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa. 2015
CLIMATE CHANGE Dichotomy of drought and deluge. 2014
Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012. 2014
Comparing Tropical Precipitation Simulated by the Met Office NWP and Climate Models with Satellite Observations. 2014
Extension of the TAMSAT Satellite-Based Rainfall Monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to Present. 2014
Improving a convection-permitting model simulation of a cold air outbreak. 2014
Modelling the diurnal cycle of tropical convection across the 'grey zone'. 2014
Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations. 2014
Salinity changes in the World Ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes. 2014
The 30 year TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT) data set. 2014
Assessment of intercalibration methods for satellite microwave humidity sounders. 2013
Climate Warming-Related Strengthening of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle. 2013
Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda. 2013
Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain. 2013
Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?. 2013
Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850-2100. 2013
Quantifying present and projected future atmospheric moisture transports onto land. 2013
Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations. 2012
Diagnosing atmosphere-land feedbacks in CMIP5 climate models. 2012
Energetic Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change. 2012
Multisatellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability. 2012
Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty. 2012
Regime dependent changes in global precipitation. 2012
The Role of Water Vapour in Earth's Energy Flows. 2012
The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation. 2012
CLIMATE CHANGE Human influence on rainfall. 2011
Changes in water vapor transports of the ascending branch of the tropical circulation. 2011
Clear-sky biases in satellite infrared estimates of upper tropospheric humidity and its trends. 2011
Combining satellite data and models to estimate cloud radiative effect at the surface and in the atmosphere. 2011
Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May-July. 2011
Motivation, rationale and key results from the GERBILS Saharan dust measurement campaign. 2011
Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979-2007. 2011
Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers. 2011
Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle INTRODUCTION. 2010
Current changes in tropical precipitation. 2010
Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation. 2010
Summertime precipitation variability over Europe and its links to atmospheric dynamics and evaporation. 2010
A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus. 2009
Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations. 2009
How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming?. 2009
