Modelling

Earth system models integrate components of the Earth’s climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice, to provide accurate and reliable climate predictions for the UK and globally.

From 2016-2019, The UK Earth system modelling project (UKESM) produced a comprehensive modelling system, along with simulations, to guide climate prediction and provide policy support that has since contributed to global efforts to understand and address climate change. NCEO provided model evaluation expertise into the project.

UKESM continues to be developed under the TerraFIRMA project where NCEO are responsible for leading the Carbon cycle feedbacks in the Earth System and the potential for climate mitigation component of the project.

Future Impacts, Risks and Mitigation Actions in a changing Earth system’ is a five-year, NERC Long-term Science Multi-centre (LTSM) project involving eight NERC centres including NCEO.

TerraFIRMA

TerraFIRMA uses Earth system modelling to investigate the societal impacts of future climate change on water resources, land stability, air quality, wildfires, sea level and marine life.

With enhanced modelling, simulations and observations, TerraFIRMA aims to provide reliable scientific advice on mitigation options for limiting future change and on the risks and socio-economic impacts of future climate change.

NCEO’s participation in TerraFIRMA spans across all the work packages in the programme. Our involvement, ranges from understanding carbon cycle feedbacks and their role in realising climate mitigation targets to documenting societal and environmental impacts of global change to engaging with diverse stakeholders for informing climate related policies and actions.

In TerraFIRMA, NCEO scientists will investigate the role of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) such as methane and tropospheric ozone and their impact on regional scale circulations, such as monsoons, using satellite observations.

In collaboration with other NERC centres, NCEO will use Earth Observation and other observations to constrain key uncertain carbon cycle processes, in UKESM models, through experimenting with land use changes such as increasing global tree cover in a changing climate.

NCEO science developed through TerraFIRMA will enable national capability support for UK’s Earth System Modelling as well as large-scale research into critical environmental challenges arising due to a changing climate.

Background

NCEO has played an important role in the development and evaluation of the UK’s flagship Earth System Model UKESM1 and in TerraFIRMA will investigate future risks and mitigation actions from UKESM1 as well as the next generation UKESM2 model simulations of future climate. 

Led by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, TerraFIRMA is a five-year, NERC Long-term Science Multi-centre (LTSM) project involving eight NERC centres including NCEO. It extends NCEO’s scientific collaboration with multiple NERC centres and the UK Met Office after the conclusion of the previous NERC LTSM funded UK Earth System Model (UKESM) project. 

Contact

For further information contact Dr Ranjini Swaminathan NCEO UKESM Core Scientist, based at the University of Reading.